Dictatorships fall when they can’t keep promises to pay and feed their military anything of worth. Any attack on Mexico would be another major hit to US financing ability like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were. The US has had to deprioritize development of a distinct navy 6th gen fighter jet to financially support the air force program. They scrapped plans for Zumwault destroyers for a new cheaper design. E7 AEW&C is on the chopping block which anything AEW&C is important for drones
Russia and Ukraine right now display the problems in difference in personnel numbers. For the amount of drones being manufacturered for Russia and Ukraine, on the front lines Ukraines lack of soldiers on the ground leaves gaps for Russian forces to push forward and create opportunities for encirclement. Mass production drones are not yet a replacement for human soldiers. Mass production drones don’t go very fast and far and they can’t Cary that heavy of munitions. Ground drones are far behind air based in terrain traversal. Large drones are expensive, use expensive munitions, and the US is slow to build things. The US unmanned systems are not good enough yet to replace a ground army and because of the Ukraine Russia war, drone counter technologies and strategies are being learned across the world like how the first Gulf War taught the world the importance of AEW&C
What swarm of AI killlbots does the US have that can take out the military of a country of 130 million people and successfully occupy and control this populace? With what money? How do they finance that with a worsening debt to GDP ratio? How well will US bonds sell to international buyers after going nuclear on Mexico? Go nuclear on Mexico and the wind. Managing the fallout drifting towards the US. There is no avoiding conscription. There is a reason the military is currently trying very hard with recruitment advertising in gaming tournaments and what not. War has not progressed in any country where machines can replace people
For the technological advantage of the US and Israel over Iran and Yemen, the US had to expend a large percentage of their THAAD stockpile to fend off missiles. Southern Mexico is the heart of the Mexican population. The US would need to defend its air assets across distances pushing well past a thousand of miles. It would have to expend a substantial amount of missiles to destroy other missiles that target US missiles and US infrastructure and sea vessels. A lot of expensive equipment. A lot of money. It would not be a quick war.
People thought Ukriane would fall within a month. Then people thought the Russian economy would collapse within a year and Putin deposed. It became a lot more murky. Current US (not previous US and not even Trump 1st era advisors thought Iran was quick work) and Israel thought it would be quick work to disable Iran and Iranian missiles wouldn’t be an issue for Israeli and American missile defenses. Pretty high percentage but enough makes it through to be an issue. So Iran and Israel, unsettled and the Houthis are back to shooting ships in the red sea and Israel beven after years of US, Israeli, and Saudi technological superiority. Probably a restart of the war in the near future as Iran replenishes it’s missile stockpile and defense systems through regional suppliers and domestic.
War with Mexico would not be quick. It would not be cheap. It would not be without major human ground forces. It would be the perfect opportunity for war in the pacific and middle east as the US just had to commit major resources to dealing with Mexico and suppress domestic unrest. All incredibly expensive for a country whose finances are built on the expectations and faith of international treasury buyers for American debt. The major international credit agencies would undoubtedly downgrade the US credit rating again complicating feeding the active American military and benefits for the retired
People concerned about the billions in recent years to Ukraine and Israel. Mexico and the international complications from opportunities made by the huge American blunder would mean trillions from the US to try to manage major wars at the southern border war, the war in Europe, the war in the middle east, and likely war in the pacific
Yes, but there are people in the USA who have made systems solving very complex tasks. Suppose people who’ve built Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google - suppose they build the robotized system that is going to fight such a war. (Which is also similar to what Russia and Ukraine did, their new military development is all around local analogs of those companies.)
They have a whole new MIC emerging, with Palantir and more general companies developing new weapons. Mostly, like I said, autonomous drones (meaning far longer range, smaller vulnerability to jamming and miniaturization - what can you do against a killer bird the size of your fist?).
Russia and Ukraine are mostly fighting using drones and artillery now, with very small suicide groups of people used to find openings, infiltrate lines and take pieces of territory.
Suppose a military fighting just like today’s Russian or Ukrainian one attacks an unprepared old one, with very expensive and big AD batteries, artillery, tanks, infantry transports and so on, unprotected from swarms of cheap drones immediately killing anything detected. They might be able to wipe it all out like a week before the world around will realize that such a blitzkrieg has happened.
Also not only swarms themselves, but modern tools of operational control. Lots of blunders are due to living humans panicking or making emotional decisions and shows, or just not being able to process information quickly enough. Due to struggle for power, or crime. A swarm of drones doesn’t have those problems.
In any case, for the purpose of this fear it only makes sense to explore the possibility of it not making a blunder. What if yes - if yes, then either the general west supports such a war and Mexico is done, just slowly, like Gaza, or it doesn’t and then, I guess, the US is going to slowly drift out of relevance.
EDIT: And that fantasy of mine is connected to a situation where US leadership goes almost Khmer Rouge. So - a clearly suicidal, but murderous scenario. So - control over millions in such a model is done by killing many.
But you are right in there not being anything resembling such amount of equipment available now to use. So I’d expect all this to be at least a decade away even if it can happen.
Dictatorships fall when they can’t keep promises to pay and feed their military anything of worth. Any attack on Mexico would be another major hit to US financing ability like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were. The US has had to deprioritize development of a distinct navy 6th gen fighter jet to financially support the air force program. They scrapped plans for Zumwault destroyers for a new cheaper design. E7 AEW&C is on the chopping block which anything AEW&C is important for drones
Russia and Ukraine right now display the problems in difference in personnel numbers. For the amount of drones being manufacturered for Russia and Ukraine, on the front lines Ukraines lack of soldiers on the ground leaves gaps for Russian forces to push forward and create opportunities for encirclement. Mass production drones are not yet a replacement for human soldiers. Mass production drones don’t go very fast and far and they can’t Cary that heavy of munitions. Ground drones are far behind air based in terrain traversal. Large drones are expensive, use expensive munitions, and the US is slow to build things. The US unmanned systems are not good enough yet to replace a ground army and because of the Ukraine Russia war, drone counter technologies and strategies are being learned across the world like how the first Gulf War taught the world the importance of AEW&C
What swarm of AI killlbots does the US have that can take out the military of a country of 130 million people and successfully occupy and control this populace? With what money? How do they finance that with a worsening debt to GDP ratio? How well will US bonds sell to international buyers after going nuclear on Mexico? Go nuclear on Mexico and the wind. Managing the fallout drifting towards the US. There is no avoiding conscription. There is a reason the military is currently trying very hard with recruitment advertising in gaming tournaments and what not. War has not progressed in any country where machines can replace people
For the technological advantage of the US and Israel over Iran and Yemen, the US had to expend a large percentage of their THAAD stockpile to fend off missiles. Southern Mexico is the heart of the Mexican population. The US would need to defend its air assets across distances pushing well past a thousand of miles. It would have to expend a substantial amount of missiles to destroy other missiles that target US missiles and US infrastructure and sea vessels. A lot of expensive equipment. A lot of money. It would not be a quick war.
People thought Ukriane would fall within a month. Then people thought the Russian economy would collapse within a year and Putin deposed. It became a lot more murky. Current US (not previous US and not even Trump 1st era advisors thought Iran was quick work) and Israel thought it would be quick work to disable Iran and Iranian missiles wouldn’t be an issue for Israeli and American missile defenses. Pretty high percentage but enough makes it through to be an issue. So Iran and Israel, unsettled and the Houthis are back to shooting ships in the red sea and Israel beven after years of US, Israeli, and Saudi technological superiority. Probably a restart of the war in the near future as Iran replenishes it’s missile stockpile and defense systems through regional suppliers and domestic.
War with Mexico would not be quick. It would not be cheap. It would not be without major human ground forces. It would be the perfect opportunity for war in the pacific and middle east as the US just had to commit major resources to dealing with Mexico and suppress domestic unrest. All incredibly expensive for a country whose finances are built on the expectations and faith of international treasury buyers for American debt. The major international credit agencies would undoubtedly downgrade the US credit rating again complicating feeding the active American military and benefits for the retired
People concerned about the billions in recent years to Ukraine and Israel. Mexico and the international complications from opportunities made by the huge American blunder would mean trillions from the US to try to manage major wars at the southern border war, the war in Europe, the war in the middle east, and likely war in the pacific
Yes, but there are people in the USA who have made systems solving very complex tasks. Suppose people who’ve built Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google - suppose they build the robotized system that is going to fight such a war. (Which is also similar to what Russia and Ukraine did, their new military development is all around local analogs of those companies.)
They have a whole new MIC emerging, with Palantir and more general companies developing new weapons. Mostly, like I said, autonomous drones (meaning far longer range, smaller vulnerability to jamming and miniaturization - what can you do against a killer bird the size of your fist?).
Russia and Ukraine are mostly fighting using drones and artillery now, with very small suicide groups of people used to find openings, infiltrate lines and take pieces of territory.
Suppose a military fighting just like today’s Russian or Ukrainian one attacks an unprepared old one, with very expensive and big AD batteries, artillery, tanks, infantry transports and so on, unprotected from swarms of cheap drones immediately killing anything detected. They might be able to wipe it all out like a week before the world around will realize that such a blitzkrieg has happened.
Also not only swarms themselves, but modern tools of operational control. Lots of blunders are due to living humans panicking or making emotional decisions and shows, or just not being able to process information quickly enough. Due to struggle for power, or crime. A swarm of drones doesn’t have those problems.
In any case, for the purpose of this fear it only makes sense to explore the possibility of it not making a blunder. What if yes - if yes, then either the general west supports such a war and Mexico is done, just slowly, like Gaza, or it doesn’t and then, I guess, the US is going to slowly drift out of relevance.
EDIT: And that fantasy of mine is connected to a situation where US leadership goes almost Khmer Rouge. So - a clearly suicidal, but murderous scenario. So - control over millions in such a model is done by killing many.
But you are right in there not being anything resembling such amount of equipment available now to use. So I’d expect all this to be at least a decade away even if it can happen.