In mid-2025, military sources in Vietnam began circulating unconfirmed rumors that new multi-billion-dollar contracts with Russia were imminent.
Documents from Rostec identify Vietnam under the discreet label “Customer 704.” According to the sources and those documents, one deal could be worth ~$8 billion and include up to 40 new fighter jets.
what a big wall of absolute nonsense.
Respond to my points. Vietnam isn’t close to war with China. Russia is their primary arms supplier and has been for decades. China arms exports to Vietnam are be becoming more frequent. Military drills and attendance of military parades are occuring now that did not happen just 10 years ago. China is Vietnams largest source for imports and growing for exports.
Tell me why is war with China going to happen when China is focused on Taiwan and Vietnam is in the process of an economic boom where China is a major market with a trade route that can’t be interrupted? They share a border
France and the US literally killed millions of Vietnamese and then proceeded to sanction the crap out of them to sub-Saharan Africa levels of poverty. Vietnam had to build trade relations outside of the NATO world. The US literally threatened a 48% tariff on Vietnam half a year ago. Tariffed Vietnam back during Trump admin #1 as well
Your posts makes it very clear you’re new to international arms sales happenings. You just need to study arms sales history and equipment capabilities. Tell me why dozens of Rafale, F-16, Gripens, Eurofighters, or Sukhois would be a problem for China’s surface to air defenses let alone hundreds of J-20 and J-35s before the 1000+ J-11, J-15, J-16 and J-10’s. The cheapest is the best choice because the most expensive won’t be any more useful. Are Vietnam buying AWACs and large radar systems too? If not, these 4th gen jet fighters are even more useless against China
Are you living under a rock or something? Vietnam’s number 1 security issue is China and nobody else.
I go to Vietnam at least once a year and Vietnam hates China as it’s really the only security challenge in the region. Cambodia and Laos are buffer zones that will never evolve into anything serious ever and other neighbours are an ocean away. To add, there’s a big cultural clash between Vietnamese and Chinese that is out of scope of this thread.
South-China Sea conflict is literally the biggest brewing issue in the region and you’d be an idiot to say otherwise.
Also bringing in WW2 and Vietnam-US war is so incredibly out of touch. Most Vietnamese have long forgotten the french and the americans and if anything got significantly closer to both than to China.
The jets there are 100% for south-china sea conflict hot or posturing. You think they will send them to fight US tarrifs? What are you even talking about. Again, a huge wall of utter rubbish.
Congrats you’re a tourist to Vietnam. The US wasn’t elevated to a similar diplomatic level as China until 2023. 2 years of solid diplomatic relations compared to at least 15 years with China. 2 years until the Trump tariffs. The war with the US may have ended in the 70s but the bulk of sanctions didn’t end until towards the end of the 90s and US arms sales being made available the last decade have not even been close enough of high volume to displace Russian equipment in the Vietnamese military.
Factions within the party that either favor the US, Russia, China or neutrality. According to your article they just purchased Russian fighter jets. They’ve been buying Russian military equipment damn near every year for a long time. Vietnam and China have been signing new trade deals just this year. They held their first joint army drills together just this year.
Geographic neighbors are your worst risk for war but the ones that also end up your primary trade partner and the power imbalance so very much favors China that being a China hawk in Vietnam may as well be suicide. Right now Vietnam is progressing towards a Mexico relationship with China but a lot more prosperous and safe than Mexico
The tension in the South China Sea is far more tense with the Philippines. If any war is happening in the next 20 years it’s with them and I doubt that happening too. Past 20 years and at that point any 4th gen fighter is even more outdated than today.
The US didn’t even attend the most recent independence parade in Vietnam, China did with their military in the parade for the first time this year. Vietnam participated in victory day parades this year in China and Russia. Those were likely planned before Trump 48% tariff threat.
It seems to me you’re more outdated in your views. The current 4th gen fighters are not going to be useful in the South China Sea. Not this decade or the next. The military gap between Vietnam and China is growing rather than closing and it’ll be a long time until that changes. So right now it makes sense that Vietnam continues to increase trade, tourism, military cooperation with China while balancing with Russia and the US. Vietnam isn’t close to war with China. Vietnam is shaping up to be neutral between whatever conflicts China may be in the next couple decades
Your a tourist to Vietnam. You probably want war between the two countries so whatever your country is has the opportunity to have better relations with Vietnam or for China to be preoccupied with them in war rather than your country. But for Vietnamese people in Vietnam, I highly doubt they’re as jingoistic for war with China like people that don’t live in Vietnam. They’re the ones that would die. Vietnam balances relations with China, the US, and Russia and the US is late to the modern Vietnamese diplomatic party compared to China and especially compared to Russia. That’s the prevailing foreign policy of Vietnam and this year has been a year of China and Russia gaining in Vietnam, not the US.
Things change. Just this year. Like read the latest RAND Corp policy opinion report on China-Taiwan. Crazy shift in strategy opinion for a historically influential think thank in the US. Countries you see as potentially strong counterbalances to China aren’t going to be so hawkish with China when the US and EU are getting skittish. The South China Sea conflict will continue but Vietnam won’t have much ability there for decades and economic growth will prioritize over military so continued improving trade relations with China will be priority over very small islands in the South China Sea. A compromise that they’d rather be more in their favor but can’t be for economic and military reasons
Man you’re talking out of your ass. I’ve been visiting Vietnam for over 10 years now, I live in SEA and have many Vietnamese friends with whom we discuss world politics and here you are saying that Vietnam and China has no tensions in the South China Sea when that’s by far the #1 geopolitical issue in the region.
Not even going to entertain your walls of nonsense anymore as you’re just building strawmen and attacking me. Get lost troll.
You’ve been attacking me. I’m not saying there’s not tensions. I’m saying the tensions are cooling. Probably heat up again in the future but it’s not 2015. A lot has changed just this year in terms of governmental agreements between the two countries
Just curious. Where do you live that your information is somehow better than OP?
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/vietnam-defense-and-security-sector
https://news.tuoitre.vn/video/chinese-soldiers-sing-tribute-song-to-late-vietnamese-leader-ho-chi-minh-during-hanoi-parade-rehearsal-3308.htm
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/chinese-troops-to-join-vietnam-s-80th-national-day-parade-4930586.html
https://vietnamnews.vn/politics-laws/1722397/viet-nam-china-conclude-first-joint-military-training-exercise.html
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/sinographs/china-and-the-us-both-want-to-friendshore-in-vietnam/
https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/the-art-of-bending-without-breaking-vietnams-quiet-power-play/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/23/us-lifts-decades-long-embargo-on-arms-sales-to-vietnam
https://www.nytimes.com/1994/02/04/world/opening-vietnam-clinton-drops-19-year-ban-us-trade-with-vietnam-cites-hanoi-s.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_strategic_partnerships_of_Vietnam
https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-visits-vietnam-after-biden-seeks-boost-ties-2023-12-12/
https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1728310/viet-nam-china-trade-poised-for-new-record-in-2025.html
https://en.nhandan.vn/viet-nam-china-strengthen-bilateral-trade-cooperation-post154650.html
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-continues-four-nos-defense-policy-4637076.html
I will not answer what country I’m from. Same way I don’t expect most Americans to understand their country’s foreign policy, I don’t expect that of pretty much any country’s people. This person has given me no reason to believe they have much knowledge of Vietnamese politics let alone historical if they think friendly relations between Vietnam and Russia and Russian arm sales to Vietnam is going to cause some social unrest in Vietnam.
I don’t rely on my friends in France to tell me the foreign policy leanings of France. Not Germany, not Spain, not Australia. People generally don’t follow politics beyond their bubble of information. It’s not their job. The guys whole arguments are just he travels to a country and get’s the feels from his friends.
If I based my whole understanding of nations on the people I’m friends with, every country in the world would be composed of leftist and filled with scientist and filmmakers. National Rally wouldn’t be rising in France. AFD wouldn’t be rising in Germany. The UK wouldn’t have anti-immigration rallies attended by over 100k people. Turkey and India wouldn’t have purchased S400 systems. Egypt wouldn’t have HQ-9B. Decades of diplomacy and outside of India and Pakistan people keep being surprised by the warmer relations that the US has with Pakistan over India. Friends are an ignorant way to determine the operations of a country. My friends are a bubble
China sells military jets to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia. They’ve sold naval vessels to Thailand. China’s navy appears to have a significant presence in Cambodia with frequent extended dockings. It’s a rapidly changing region of the world for foreign policy currently.
I didn’t push on what the cultural differences between Vietnam and China are that make relations difficult anymore than like the Phillipines which is what I would guess is the person being from stemming from their interest in the disputed South China Sea. Tensions in the South China Sea exist but from my view, that takes a backseat to economic oppurtunity. It’ll take a backseat to global warming and issues with their coastlines and weather patterns. Money and industrial capabilities is going to be incredibly important to deal with global warming in that region and that will factor into what Vietnam or the Phillipines can afford to do in the future for the disputed islands. I’ll even avoid the linguistic approach as I know depending on the political leaning of a Viet person you are talking to, it can be a touchy subject in regards to nationalism and pedagogical policy.
The history of China and Vietnam is very long. There’s a famous historical Chinese general thousands of years ago that also happens to be a famous northern Vietnamese general. It’s a very long history. Many wars. About a millennium in total of the northern part of Vietnam being a part of China though not continuous. Many successful independence wars. Historic vietnam and historic china relations stretches back to the neolithic age. There’s syncretism that stretches back thousands of years before even getting to modern governmental structure, holidays, traditions, religions, music/instruments, film, clothing, cuisine, … etc. It’s not so simple as “Vietnamese people hate Chinese people.” A lot more nuanced than that and a lot of migration over the millenniums though even limited to the last century that make the claims I hear of that a bit ridiculous. For the handful that actually have strong broad opinions on Chinese people from Vietnamese people, there’s a solid chance they may have a differing opinion on Chinese from the north vs the south of the country. Same with the simple takes I hear in regards to China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan relations and what they will all certainly do to each other in the future
Non-alignment is difficult to comprehend when living in countries fully embracing of the diplomatic polar world but for Vietnam there’s a famous song from the unification war era. This is the rendition I’m familiar with. All that matters is independence. Vietnam is not only an ally of any or combination of the US, China, or Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0h2YgM9KRk
Vietnam’s non-alignment is possibly more impressive than Pakistans since Vietnams economy has come out as a lot more robust while playing every major side. While it’s in a period of industrialization making parts of the country having poor air quality to support manufacturing for export to countries like the US, the cities are very clean as compared to like Bengaluru, city in another non-aligned country, India.
On the point of US-China-Taiwan and RAND Corp
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4107-1.html
It’s a very interesting progression of RAND Corp’s suggestions compared to their history of opinions. If you’re unaware of RAND Corp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAND_Corporation
One interesting field to study is trying to understand the whys for the difference between Vietnam’s international relations compared to Japan, Taiwan, and Korean peninsula. They all share so much cultural traditions. China has more history of control over Vietnam than Taiwan so why far far more tension there than Vietnam. Far more history with Vietnam in general. A much longer history with Vietnam than with Japan but internationally people don’t think of relations of Vietnam with China like they think of Japan and China. And even that Japan/China relation is a lot more nuanced than most of my friends anywhere in the world would believe. Even the Taiwan/China discussion is a lot more nuanced in Taiwan than outside. It should be. In the event of war, they’re the ones that would suffer the most casualties and loss of infrastructure and potentially water import issues