As Donald Trump shatters the global rules-based order, official institutions (and private investors) are scrambling to buy gold: the share of the asset in central banks’ reserves has doubled in the past decade to more than a quarter, the highest level in almost 30 years.
Although this partly reflects the soaring bullion price, experts say central banks are also stuffing their vaults as an insurance policy in a volatile world. Many are also rushing to repatriate gold stockpiles held overseas, and slashing their exposure to the US dollar.
“We have moved from Pax Americana to global discord, geopolitically. It is the law of the jungle when we see what the US are doing,” says Raphaël Gallardo, the chief economist at the asset manager Carmignac.
“Investors – private and sovereign – believe their strategic reserves are no longer safe in dollar terms, as they can be confiscated overnight. The dollar is losing the credibility as the nominal anchor of the global monetary system because the Fed is losing credibility, and US Congress is losing its credibility.”
Part of this is deliberate. Scott Bessant’a background is as a currency trader and his plan is to devalue the dollar to inflate away the gargantuan national debt while making exports cheaper.
There has been a spike in short term debt issuance by the Treasury and tariffs are raising import prices to encourage domestic producers while making exports cheaper by bringing down the value of the USD.
Its a high stakes gamble and it doesn’t look like its working.