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Cake day: December 6th, 2024

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  • They’re the Resistance Française of Gaza, except the (new) NAZIs occupying their land have been there for 7 decades instead of a mere half a decade (plus this time around Britain and the US are part of the Axis alongside the NAZIs), hence their actions are more desperate.

    Remembers those WWII films were the Resistance Française, when they caught them dished deadly justice to filthy French Colaborationists that had helped the evil NAZIs either by snitching others to them or even by acting as an auxiliary militia for the occupying NAZI forces? Remember cheering for the Resistance and feeling righteous justice from them dealing with the people who were so evil that they betrayed their own neighbours and even families to the NAZIs?

    Morally this is exactly the same situation.










  • Also and as somebody else pointed out, if makes sense for him to try and scare European nations so that they refrain from sending as many weapons and ammo to Ukraine because of thinking they might need those to defend themselves from Russia.

    So a sabble-rattling discourse and even the recent air-space intrusions by Russian military planes are cheap ways of trying to get the strategical gain of Ukraine receiving fewer weapons from the rest of Europe and even if those things fail he loses nothing from doing them (at this point, he’s hardly going to get in a worst situation than he already put himself in).

    It makes absolute sense to pursue a strategy where at best you gain something and at worst you lose nothing.

    Now, if the response to the Russian intrusion in European airspace had been for European nations to set up and enforce a no fly for Russia inside Ukraine, that would’ve definitelly been a loss for him (at the very least the rest of Europe would protect Western Ukraine from Russian drones and air assets, freeing Ukranian assets to be used elsewhere), but the leaderships of European nations have yet to show a willingness or capability to act decisivelly like that as a group: even the help with weapons and ammo took ages to get going properly, was riddled with “red lines” (like “no tanks”, then “no jets”, then “no long range cruise missiles” and who could forget the whole “can’t be used against Russian territory” artificial limitation) and there was a lot of feet-dragging, especially from Germany) so actual direct intervention even if only with air assets doesn’t seem likely as response to “mere” Russian air space intrusions and unconventional warfare that can be denied (cyber attacks, election interference, support for extreme political forces, cutting of undersea cables and so on).


  • Ukraine has developed new long range attack drones that can strike deep into Russia, opening up all of their industry, and particularly their oil refining capabilities, to attack. Russia is so big that they simply cannot defend all of it from aerial attack, and Ukraine’s intel is good enough that they can continually shift their focus to wherever Russia isn’t defending.

    It is especially delicious how Russia’s greatest advantage in this war - their size relative to Ukraine, hence significantly higher manpower and resources than Ukraine, as well as territorial depth that let them have important military facilities beyond the range of Ukraine, has been turned by Ukraine into one of Russia’s worst strategical weaknesses.

    Anywhere in Ukraine can be hit by Russia, even with shitty shit drones like Shaheed, so Ukranians adapted, plus comparativelly to Russia their’s is a smaller country hence with fewer sites of strategical value, which means having enough AA to take down most of Russia’s missiles and long-range drones is actually possible, which is why Russia’s ever larger mass attacks of late have had so much less effect than smaller attacks did at the start of the Invasion.

    Meanwhile Russia’s strategically important infrastructure is all over a large country, so they would have to deploy AA to defend every individual site and they don’t have enough of the kind of AA that can successfully deal with low-flying drones (it doesn’t matter how good their coverage with longer range systems like the S-500 is when that weapon system is not suitable to deal with Cessna-152s converted into drones flying at low altitude plus each missile costs many times more than each of those drones).

    In this, Ukraine’s strategy is masterful, IMHO.




  • Curiously, actual scams also go through “a speculative boom that looked like a scam in the moment”, and then they turn out to actually be an overhyped scam that doesn’t in fact change the World.

    Crypto currencies are a good example.

    Your “don’t throw the baby out with the bath water” statement makes a lot of sense in the early stages, when we don’t really know yet if what’s being overhyped might or not be just the beginning of something big, hence one shouldn’t just discount a tech because there’s a massive hype train on it. The thing is, this was maybe 1 or 2 years ago for things like LLMs, but by now it’s becoming obvious that it’s a dead end since the speed of improvement and cost relative to improvement ratio have become very bad.

    Whilst broader Machine Learning tech is useful, as it was useful already since when it started (back in the 90s Neural Networks were already used to recognized postal codes on mail envelopes for automated sorting), this bubble was never about the broader domain of Machine Learning, it was about a handful of very specific NN architectures with massive numbers of neurons and huge training datasets (generally scrapped from the Internet), and it’s those architectures and associated approaches to try and create a machine intelligence that are turning out to not at all deliver what was promised and as they’ve already reached a point very low incremental returns, seem to be a dead-end in the quest to reach that objective. What they do deliver - an unimaginative text fluff generator - turns out to be mainly useless.

    So yeah, if you’re betting on the kind of huge neural networks with huge datasets used in the subsection of ML which has been overhyped in this bubble and the kind of things they require such as lots of GPU power, you’re going to get burned because that specific Tech pathway isn’t going to deliver what was promised, ever.

    Does this mean that MLs will stop being useful for things like mail sorting or other forms of image recognition? Of course not, those are completelly different applications of that broad technique which have very little to do with what people now think of as being AI and the bubble around it.

    Machine Learning has a bright future, it’s just that what was pushed in this bubble wasn’t Machine Learning in general but rather very specific architectures within it - just like when the “Revolution in Transportation” which turned out to be the Segway and kind crap thus quickly fizzled didn’t destroy the entire concept of transportation, so the blowing up of the LLMs bubble isn’t going to destroy the concept of Machine Learning, but in both cases if you went all in into that specific expression a technology (or the artifacts around it, such as massive amounts GPU power for LLMs), that the broader domain will keep going one isn’t going to be much comfort to you.






  • Every-fucking-body has something like that or worse (much worse, in some cases) going on or at least in their History.

    So Egypt is hardly going to care about performative outrage from US-aligned nations about China’s very own Genocide when those nations themselves have done worse (in some cases way, way worse) and are currently supporting a vastly more murderous Genocide in the Middle East than whatever was done to the Uyghurs.

    From Egypt’s point of view all the talk about the treatment of the Uyghur population in China from US-aligned nations is, as the Brits would say, the Pot calling the Kettle Black.

    At this point, after 2 years of unwavering support of the mass murdering of children by the Israelis in Gaza, I doubt any non-Aligned nation cares in any way form or shape about the performative “humanitarianism” of US-aligned nations towards members of other alliances.