𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚒𝚛𝚖𝚊𝚗 𝙼𝚎𝚘𝚠

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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: August 16th, 2023

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  • So it’s just a coincidence that no neighboring country has threatened them with outright military invasion since they got nukes?

    I mean, haven’t they?

    And when has Iran ever threatened to use a bomb against Israel?

    The IAEA cites several officials that have stated that Iran is able to manufacture nuclear weapons, and pundits on state tv have threatened Israel with total destruction and “annihilation”. It doesn’t take much to put two and two together. They’re overt threats, but threats nonetheless.

    The Soviets didn’t just keep expanding across Europe, precisely because the US had the bomb to hold them in check.

    This ignores the many proxy wars the US and USSR fought in many regions. I wouldn’t necessarily call that very stabilizing. Meanwhile the theory that wars won’t be declared between nuclear powers is actively being tested by several states at the moment, prodding and probing nuclear-capable alliances to test where the boundary lies.

    Results achieved in the past do not guarantee success in the future.


  • As much as I agree that Israel is a destabilizing force and that you have their MO fairly spot on, Israel doesn’t seem to be using its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent for invasion. They don’t have to, they have significant conventional forces with US backing, making invasion nigh-impossible anyway. That’s how it went in the past at least with the various regional wars.

    I’m not sure an Iranian bomb would stabilize much if anything. Israel sees it as a direct existential threat and will stop at nothing to prevent or disable such a weapon. Iran has also repeatedly threatened to use it on Israel offensively, which doesn’t really bode well for peace either. Suppose Iran does lob a bomb at Israel, how would they respond? Or what if Israel strikes first? I don’t trust either party to be reasonable and responsible here tbh.

    Iran can’t use the weapon to threaten Israel as you say, because it’d be an empty threat. Iran can’t nuke Israel without getting nuked right back. Israel knows this, so they can continue their expansions just fine.

    MAD doctrine prevents nuclear wars from breaking out, but as we have been seeing recently it doesn’t prevent conventional wars.