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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • ooh good deep dive.

    investment in quantum computing by the US government has doubled in less than 4 years, I know China is throwing huge amounts of money at it also, but you won’t see large public investment until commercially available products become widespread, which is not to say that you can’t invest in qcomputing if you want to.

    let me know what you find with air travel investment 120 years ago, I’m interested.

    update: looks like vanderbilt and morgan invested 1 million dollars in the wright brothers company 6 years after kitty hawk, which would still be very, very early days for investing in flight.

    here’s an article sunnarizing several quotes from darpa after experimenting with eight of the currently available quantum computers:

    https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/24/darpa_quantum_computer_benchmarking_papers/

    The results are mixed depending on what was measured, but it’s important to note that DARPA didn’t say quantum computing isn’t real or isn’t practical, just current quantum computers aren’t ready to consistently tackle every problem, which is a lot like saying a 1995 desktop can’t run Witcher 3.

    and for fun, that’s obviously the information DARPA has publicly shared, anything quantum computing could be positively applied to with significant efficacy would be a matter of national security at this point.

    while not as relevant as the actual results DARPA is releasing, it’s important to keep in mind that satellite phones were around '62 but weren’t commercially available for at least 30 years.

    Three decades of practical development and use cases before that tech becomes mainstream.


  • DARPA disagrees and the US has doubled billions of dollars of investment in the last few years testing available quantum computers.

    ibm is increasing quantum processing power just like they do with regular computers.

    Declaring that quantum computers is not yet a practical reality despite them being real and functioning, progressing and in use is akin to dismissing the wright brothers after their first successful flight.

    if people doubted the wright brothers before they built and flew their plane?

    understandable.

    but doubting them after kitty hawk is popular willful ignorance, or an aversion to logical imagination.

    It’s the same common perception about new technology until said tech becomes less-new and widely available, at which point everyone swears they saw it coming a mile away and it’s the only way things could have happened.

    Electric cars is another great example, people have been moaning for 20 years that they are impractical and their batteries are difficult to manufacture and their capacity just isn’t up to snuff so they’ll never really take off like gasoline cars, and now everyone with any understanding of the auto industry has pretty much accepted the inevitability of EV dominance.