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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Edit: Redacted a mistaken identity

    I’m not sure you understand what this article is or how our markets work.

    The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with. Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

    He doesn’t have a billion dollars. He’s a hedge fund manager that manages (at least) a billion dollars collectively of other people’s investment money. Its that money he’s betting.

    Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

    No, he’s not. He’s betting against only two companies: Nvidia and Palantir. He has a relatively small bet against Nvidia ($187.6 million), and HUGE bet against Palantir ($912 million). I’m not sure I’d bet against Nvidia yet, but Palantir is co-founded by Peter Theil, trump’s deputy chief of staff which job has a large influence on White House policy. If you ever watched the TV show The West Wing, this would be the Josh Lyman character’s job.

    We already know trump’s favor swings widely and if politics are going against trump (as recent news show) then its not unbelievable that Theil might get the boot or at least trump would punish Theil by killing lucrative government contracts to buy Palantir services.

    All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

    The point of shorting a stock exists so that the market can express a view that they believe a stock will fail. This is an important “canary in the coal mine” for the rest of the market. The other option is a policy that you can’t criticize a company with any meaning and investors continue to put money into failing/risky companies without this important indication of the risk.

    Frankly I don’t like your idea of jailing someone that says “The emperor has no clothes”.


  • The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won’t burst?

    Nobody believes the AI investment/growth trajectory we have right now will continue for infinity. What nobody knows is: when the correction will occur.

    • Do you pull your investments out now and sit on the sidelines waiting for the fallout while your principal loses value daily from inflation?
    • What does the correction look like when it happens? Does all the value evaporate on day 1, the first week, a month? This is important to figure out for this strategy to know when to go back in.

    This is the info/decisions you’d need as an average investor. What Burry is doing is the riskiest type of investments with shorting the market. If growth continue to occur he and his fund will have to pay for the growth to those whose shares he borrowed to short.

    In summary, its not enough to know that a bubble exists, but to profit from it you have to figure out when it will burst and when the full burst is done.



  • There’s a huge gulf between pub clowd and shitty on-prem.

    We agree on this.

    Redundant everything piped in. Redundant everything set up. We run VMs by terraform. Wheeeeee

    For that customer of yours, is that a single datacenter or does is represent multiple datacenters separated by a large distance across a nation, or perhaps even across national borders?

    Point is, posing shitty on-prem as the alternative to the clowd is moving the goalposts a bit.

    I think ignoring that shitty on-prem represented a large part of IT infrastructure prior cloud providers is ignoring a critical point. Was it possible to have well-run enterprise IT data centers prior to cloud? Sure. Was everyone doing that? Absolutely not, I’d argue the majority had at least a certain level of jank in their infra and that that floor is raised with cloud providers. Just the basic facilities is enterprise grade irrespective of the server or app config.



  • That work is still being done by someone in a data centre. But all these jobs went from in-house positions to the centres.

    The difference is scale. When in-house, the person responsible for managing the glycol loop is also responsible for the other CRACs, possibly the power rails, and likely the fire suppression. In a giant provider, each one of those is its own team with dozens or hundreds of people that specialize in only their area. They can spend 100% on their one area of responsibilty instead of having to wear multiple hats. The small the company, the more hats people have to wear, and the worse to overall result is because of being spread to thin.


  • We need to ditch cloud entirety and go in house again.

    For many many companies that would be returning to the bad-old-days.

    I don’t miss getting an emergency page during the Thanksgiving meal because there’s excessive temperature being reported in the in-house datacenter. Going into the office and finding the CRAC failed and its now 105 degree F. And you knew the CRAC preventive maintenance was overdue and management wouldn’t approve the cost to get it serviced even though you’ve been asking for it for more than 6 months. You also know with this high temp event, you’re going to have an increased rate of hard drive failures over the next year.

    No thank you.






  • Honestly it doesn’t matter if ABC returns Kimmel and his show to air. The exercise (fascist politicians exerting their influence through the oligarchy to punish critical speech) has served its purpose (to be a chilling effect on anyone with the mind to speak truth to power).

    I think its the opposite from your take. The fascists got knocked down and now look weak. Other organizations that try to capitulate now see there’s backlash that happens and should be more emboldened to reject the fascist demands.


  • It’s also important to check whether solar overcacity is worthwhile in the UsA. Her3 it is not( anymore).

    I’ll say generally speaking in most places it isn’t, however, once you go solar, you may increase your electricity usage as you move away from carbon based energy. Before solar we had natural gas furnace heating and two gasoline cars. Now we have two EVs and a cold climate heat pump with zero natural gas and zero gasoline consumption. So I wanted the larger solar capacity to cover the increases in electricity we knew we’d have.

    Its worked out pretty well. We have fairly large electricity bills ($400ish) in Jan and Feb, a small bill in March, and usually a tiny bill (under $10) in April. Then no bills for the rest of the year. Also keep in mind that is TOTAL energy costs, no gas or gasoline bought anymore.


  • And buy them according and after you’ve done everything possible to insulate your house, whether in the colder or warmer climates.

    In the USA there are silly rules that you can only get 120% capacity of your last years worth grid consumption as solar installed. So if one were to follow your advice and do all the energy efficient improvement prior to solar, then you would be restricted to getting a much smaller array. I understand why they have the rule, but its easy to circumvent by just having artificially oversized consumption for a year in your house, and you can then get the larger array you want before then doing all the energy improvements post-array installation.



  • could be because I told them I’ll buy once I can get net zero.

    I’m not following your logic. You aren’t willing to accept any savings unless you can completely zero out your power bill? Judging from your consumption I’m assuming a good chunk of that is for cooling your home? If so that means you’re likely in a pretty great place to harvest solar power. You’d reach payback of your investment on your array much faster than most, and be saving money for probably 35 years or more with little to no additional investment.

    Making some guesses for how much your electricity rates are, and how much you’re consuming (assuming much from cooling), you might be a full payback in less than 7 years if you took advantage of the tax credit. Then, every month after that you’d be gaining money back.