Initially Valve's Steam Hardware & Software Survey for December 2025 showed Linux at 3.19%, but they appear to have amended it with a nice boost for Linux.
As someone who semi-recently made the jump (june) to linux, you need a lot of time to do it, even for something that would seem trivial to an experienced user like going to mint. Most people don’t have the time to do something like that. New systems built by curious nerds will probably be where linux gets most of its new users. (so it’s a shame no one can afford to build one)
I’ve installed Windows on thousands of machines and IMO, major Linux distros are usually easier to set up for home use but I say that having used both for a good amount of time, so my opinion is definitely biased compared to someone who doesn’t really use computers.
I would argue though, where Linux really shines is old systems, much like the many that MS chose to drop support for in Windows 11. There’s a pretty decent chance that the bullshit going on with RAM and drives might actually further drive Linux adoption as people try to get more out of their existing machines or old used\refurbished machines that they can actually afford (which Linux runs great on, unlike Windows).
It doesn’t really matter which is easier to install because only a very small percentage of people are comfortable with installing an OS of any kind. The vast majority of people just keep whatever OS was pre-installed. 99% of the time that’s Windows or MacOS.
Hopefully 2026 brings some more mainstream options to buy computers with Linux pre-installed. I think that’s unlikely though, other than Steam OS for some handhelds and Valve’s new hardware.
It would be great if Lenovo or Dell or others prominently featured Linux options to try to capitalize on all the Microsoft hate. I know they already sell some Ubuntu options but they aren’t featured or advertised. I suspect they are afraid of pissing off Microsoft.
Dell definitely has an option for Ubuntu as a default install, but it’s definitely not the norm. Not sure about Lenovo, but I can tell you Linux runs great on Thinkpads (my daily driver is a T14 with Cinnamon Mint).
Only with certain models, sadly. Mine was not available with anything but W10 Pro, 3y ago. Zero support for Linux.
Also linux support for cellular models is atrocious, so I had to go with (k)ubuntu, even though I didn’t want to. Even then, it was more difficult than it should have been (didn’t work out of the box). Everything else worked fine on all distros and flavors I checked, but none else got the modem working (eventually).
But also, after that TP and then buying and returning two more (known cooling issues that Lenovo denies, and a custom build that they didn’t activate or provide a key for W10 Pro!), they will have to give me a free, top-tier machine to potentially get me as a customer again. Cs was nice but everything else is a dumpster fire.
The TP is on its second battery too - the first was replaced after 6 weeks. I never left the house with it, and yet it went from 3h to 20m capacity in that amount of time. The replacement did the same thing…
Without researching it, I’m not sure who did it first, but I have a feeling it was Lenovo.
I’ve also never ordered from them directly either, imo a brand new T series ThinkPad is a horrible investment, I just let someone else lose the thousands and pick up a year old barely used on the second hand market for (I’m in Australia) 1.5k - 2.5k less than retail typically.
I think most users, given enough motivation, could definitely figure out how to install a distro from scratch especially for something like Ubuntu or Mint.
You’re much more optimistic than I am. Maybe I’ve spent too much time with users who are usually scared of clicking on an unknown button, because after all, who knows what could happen if they click on “ok”?
I’ve spent shitloads of time with users (did stints at repair shops, MSP, desktop support, and analyst stuff), but even the most ignorant, careless user could probably get through installing Linux if they really wanted to.
It becomes a matter of which is scarier: Microsoft or having to try a new thing? The shittier windows gets, the more people will be pushed to jump ship, possibly to Linux.
Realistically what’ll happen is these users will start hunting for alternatives. If Linux gains enough enthusiast marketshare, more small local IT companies will feel comfortable just handing folks an old PC loaded with Linux, more computer shops will directly support Linux and this will chip away at the norm. Eventually if such a trend continues for long enough folks will start asking for it “yeah my last computer had oombootoo on it instead of Microsoft. Do they still make that? Can you get me one of them oombootoo computers?”
Seems kinda crazy to me that Windows is still so dominant after all the shitty stuff MS has done.
As someone who semi-recently made the jump (june) to linux, you need a lot of time to do it, even for something that would seem trivial to an experienced user like going to mint. Most people don’t have the time to do something like that. New systems built by curious nerds will probably be where linux gets most of its new users. (so it’s a shame no one can afford to build one)
I installed Mint on my 72 year old fathers new Thinkpad. He loves it and has had relatively few complaints.
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I’ve installed Windows on thousands of machines and IMO, major Linux distros are usually easier to set up for home use but I say that having used both for a good amount of time, so my opinion is definitely biased compared to someone who doesn’t really use computers.
I would argue though, where Linux really shines is old systems, much like the many that MS chose to drop support for in Windows 11. There’s a pretty decent chance that the bullshit going on with RAM and drives might actually further drive Linux adoption as people try to get more out of their existing machines or old used\refurbished machines that they can actually afford (which Linux runs great on, unlike Windows).
Time will tell though…
It doesn’t really matter which is easier to install because only a very small percentage of people are comfortable with installing an OS of any kind. The vast majority of people just keep whatever OS was pre-installed. 99% of the time that’s Windows or MacOS.
Hopefully 2026 brings some more mainstream options to buy computers with Linux pre-installed. I think that’s unlikely though, other than Steam OS for some handhelds and Valve’s new hardware.
It would be great if Lenovo or Dell or others prominently featured Linux options to try to capitalize on all the Microsoft hate. I know they already sell some Ubuntu options but they aren’t featured or advertised. I suspect they are afraid of pissing off Microsoft.
Dell definitely has an option for Ubuntu as a default install, but it’s definitely not the norm. Not sure about Lenovo, but I can tell you Linux runs great on Thinkpads (my daily driver is a T14 with Cinnamon Mint).
PSA: Michael Dell is a super shitty GOP megadonor. Don’t buy his shit.
I don’t personally, but they are one of the suppliers where I work.
Lenovo (as far as I’m aware) still has the Ubuntu deal going where you can order a new ThinkPad with Ubuntu pre installed
Only with certain models, sadly. Mine was not available with anything but W10 Pro, 3y ago. Zero support for Linux.
Also linux support for cellular models is atrocious, so I had to go with (k)ubuntu, even though I didn’t want to. Even then, it was more difficult than it should have been (didn’t work out of the box). Everything else worked fine on all distros and flavors I checked, but none else got the modem working (eventually).
But also, after that TP and then buying and returning two more (known cooling issues that Lenovo denies, and a custom build that they didn’t activate or provide a key for W10 Pro!), they will have to give me a free, top-tier machine to potentially get me as a customer again. Cs was nice but everything else is a dumpster fire.
The TP is on its second battery too - the first was replaced after 6 weeks. I never left the house with it, and yet it went from 3h to 20m capacity in that amount of time. The replacement did the same thing…
Makes sense, I never bought from Lenovo directly (mine’s a refurb), but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn Lenovo started doing it before Dell.
Without researching it, I’m not sure who did it first, but I have a feeling it was Lenovo.
I’ve also never ordered from them directly either, imo a brand new T series ThinkPad is a horrible investment, I just let someone else lose the thousands and pick up a year old barely used on the second hand market for (I’m in Australia) 1.5k - 2.5k less than retail typically.
Up until more recently, all the shitty shit they did only affected people with more computer knowledge than how to open the browser and use google.
I think it affected more people than that, but the level of annoyance is way higher than ever with the average user these days for sure.
Most users don’t know how to enter a url any other way than to search for the site name and click on the most likely result.
I don’t see those people installing Linux (or anything else, for that matter) any time soon.
I think most users, given enough motivation, could definitely figure out how to install a distro from scratch especially for something like Ubuntu or Mint.
You’re much more optimistic than I am. Maybe I’ve spent too much time with users who are usually scared of clicking on an unknown button, because after all, who knows what could happen if they click on “ok”?
I’ve spent shitloads of time with users (did stints at repair shops, MSP, desktop support, and analyst stuff), but even the most ignorant, careless user could probably get through installing Linux if they really wanted to.
But that kind of user typically won’t want to because it’s much too scary.
Of course it’s trivial to install Linux, you just have to click “next” five times or so.
It becomes a matter of which is scarier: Microsoft or having to try a new thing? The shittier windows gets, the more people will be pushed to jump ship, possibly to Linux.
Realistically what’ll happen is these users will start hunting for alternatives. If Linux gains enough enthusiast marketshare, more small local IT companies will feel comfortable just handing folks an old PC loaded with Linux, more computer shops will directly support Linux and this will chip away at the norm. Eventually if such a trend continues for long enough folks will start asking for it “yeah my last computer had oombootoo on it instead of Microsoft. Do they still make that? Can you get me one of them oombootoo computers?”