The business of revolution is such: for a revolution to win, it must grow and spread decisively and fast. A revolutionary drops out of the calculation after being imprisoned. Since revolutionaries typically cannot detain people, a riot cop will return next day - unless disarmed and put in hospital condition. Thus, sadly, a revolution cannot afford to lose mass engagements and lose many people as prisoners. If it is opposed, it needs to be decisively violent. :( If it’s not being opposed, it can be peaceful. To prevail, revolutionaries need an big numeric advantage, coordination (know where to strike) and rapid action (don’t give a chance of defending). If opposed, they need weapons.
If a state manages to mobilize armed agencies to supress a revolution, military units must be either persuaded to defect (approach them with beer), bribed to switch sides (approach them with money), or defeated. Option 3 is the hardest, only possible if the population is well armed and organized.
Random samples:
in 1936 in parts of Spain, population was highly organized and dual power structures prepared for rebellion: they overcame military units and took their weapons in some regions, but not others, civil war followed
in 1991 in the USSR, dual power structures were already well developed and democracy was expected - the military delayed with implementing orders, negotiated about whose orders to implement and essentially defected to the side of the population
in 2010 during the Arab Spring, protest expanded so fast in several countries that goverment could not mobilize forces to supress it
in 2011 in Syria, protest was suppressed with violence in central areas, but protesters overcame government in less central areas, civil war followed
in 2014 in Ukraine, government was divided (president vs. parliament) and the military refused to choose a side, after which protesters overwhelmed riot police and the president fled
in 2025 in Nepal, protest expanded so quickly that protesters overcame civilian branches of government, drove ministers into emigration and torched the parliament, before the military could choose a side
in 2026 in Iran, protest grew too slowly, government was very prepared for repressions, and had enough time to mobilize armed supression and used heavy violence, prevailing :(
It is sad to hear of their defeat.
The business of revolution is such: for a revolution to win, it must grow and spread decisively and fast. A revolutionary drops out of the calculation after being imprisoned. Since revolutionaries typically cannot detain people, a riot cop will return next day - unless disarmed and put in hospital condition. Thus, sadly, a revolution cannot afford to lose mass engagements and lose many people as prisoners. If it is opposed, it needs to be decisively violent. :( If it’s not being opposed, it can be peaceful. To prevail, revolutionaries need an big numeric advantage, coordination (know where to strike) and rapid action (don’t give a chance of defending). If opposed, they need weapons.
If a state manages to mobilize armed agencies to supress a revolution, military units must be either persuaded to defect (approach them with beer), bribed to switch sides (approach them with money), or defeated. Option 3 is the hardest, only possible if the population is well armed and organized.
Random samples:
in 1936 in parts of Spain, population was highly organized and dual power structures prepared for rebellion: they overcame military units and took their weapons in some regions, but not others, civil war followed
in 1991 in the USSR, dual power structures were already well developed and democracy was expected - the military delayed with implementing orders, negotiated about whose orders to implement and essentially defected to the side of the population
in 2010 during the Arab Spring, protest expanded so fast in several countries that goverment could not mobilize forces to supress it
in 2011 in Syria, protest was suppressed with violence in central areas, but protesters overcame government in less central areas, civil war followed
in 2014 in Ukraine, government was divided (president vs. parliament) and the military refused to choose a side, after which protesters overwhelmed riot police and the president fled
in 2025 in Nepal, protest expanded so quickly that protesters overcame civilian branches of government, drove ministers into emigration and torched the parliament, before the military could choose a side
in 2026 in Iran, protest grew too slowly, government was very prepared for repressions, and had enough time to mobilize armed supression and used heavy violence, prevailing :(